Its December 1st, and the sun is shining brightly. That doesn't happen that much in December. This is, according to the long term averages, the snowiest month of the year, and when it is not snowing it is usually quite foggy and gloomy. That is why this sunshine is such a welcomed sight. Actually the next few days should be fairly sunny as very dry air inhabits the Pacific Northwest. It will be getting colder though, as today the high will be near 40, tomorrow the mid 30s, and by the weekend just in the 20s. A little snow is still in the forecast for the end of the week, centered on Friday, but I emphasize little as the dry air will continue to dominate the scene.
What about the longer term forecast, for the month of December and the entire winter? The biggest factor in what to expect is still out there, and that is an El Nino event in the tropical Pacific. In a nutshell, when an El Nino occurs warmer than normal water flows slowly eastward from the West Indies toward the northwest coast of South America and that warms the air above. What it all means to us is that El Nino winters tend to be warmer and slightly drier than normal. The average snow level (the elevation that snowflakes melt into raindrops) should be quite a bit higher than the past couple of years, so we should see much less snow and more rain than during the record breaking snowy winter last year, and the one before which was very nearly as bad. We will see some snow, but the total for the year should fall well short of our seasonal average of 48 inches. That sounds like good news to me!
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